With the election recently behind us, there are those still saddened by the results and those who are elated. I am hoping we’ll all find common ground as Americans and move forward together. Like it or not, we now have what I consider a Quasi Republican President, a Republican-controlled Senate, and a Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
I address our election because many of my clients and MCM readers alike have asked, “What does a Trump Presidency mean to the market?” Having Mr. Trump in the Oval Office looks a lot different now with the structure of Capitol Hill. Per politico.com, Republicans have not had this large a House majority while holding the Senate and having a Republican President since 1928! The Stock Market Futures reacted overwhelmingly negatively as the news of a possible Trump presidency hit the wires. At one point in the wee hours of November 9, I saw the Dow Jones Futures at -800 points!* When I woke up a few hours later, the same futures were at -250; and then +257 by the end of the day! What a wild day of volatility.
Many in the media and other financial pundits predicted a market meltdown given this election scenario; but almost the exact opposite happened during those first few days after Trump became President Elect. I have no crystal ball, but I’m guessing the markets may be even higher when this article runs in December than when I wrote it in November (The Dow Jones closed at 18,868 on the day of this writing).*
How could the media and pundits be so wrong on the post-election market direction? In my opinion, for the first time in history, the country is being run by a businessman who doesn’t plan to take a salary (possibly $1, as required by law),** all while Republicans control both the House and the Senate. The possibility for pro-economic growth policies could inspire animal spirits in the markets for hope of a brighter economic future.
Although things seem rosy in the Republican camp right now, I would be remiss if I did not state a couple of other interesting facts from politico.com: In 1928, Republicans held 270 House seats, but within two years, that shrank to 117 seats and became the Minority Party. By 1932, Republicans only held 36 Senate seats. I tend to believe that the Great Depression that started in 1929 and the debt-induced stock market crash may have had something to do with that. There are odd similarities to the last time the Republicans held this type of majority on the Hill. Let’s hope for a better result for our economy than before.
These are simply some facts and a few opinions, with no endorsement one way or the other as to what has recently occurred in the psychology of the markets. Who knows how the markets will end up digesting this change and how the world will respond to President Trump vs. Candidate Trump? This was one of the ugliest election cycles in decades, and by the looks of my Facebook feeds, there is much healing that needs to take place in America. We need to choose kindness, be respectful and listen to our fellow man. As Americans, we truly are stronger together!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!
*Bloomberg.com
**60 Minutes Interview
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